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A closer look Beyond the Deal
Mar 01, 2019
- Successful trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, averting further tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., seem increasingly likely this spring.
- While this scenario certainly would be a positive “headline,” we see additional trade-related issues as risks that may undermine any sustained investor optimism.
- Technology-related tensions are likely to continue, while a shift toward a current-account deficit in China could add pressure for a weaker renminbi.
- Meanwhile, broader trade uncertainty seems unlikely to disappear ahead of 2020 elections — limiting upside for risk assets.